Economists Expect Another Major Job Drop | Review of northern beaches

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High COVID-19 vaccination rates and easing restrictions are expected to boost consumer and business morale.

This will be good news for retailers, having been hit hard with half of the population in lockdown battling the Delta variant, but also more broadly in terms of jobs and future investment.

This week will see a series of confidence building measures for consumers and businesses.

However, there will also be data showing the grim reality of having NSW, Victoria and ACT locked out.

The workforce report for September is released Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Economists’ forecasts point to a further loss of 120,000 jobs in the month following the sharp drop to 146,300 in August. Forecasts range from a drop of 25,000 jobs to 225,000.

Ironically, the unemployment rate fell to an almost 13-year low of 4.5 percent in August, but that was the result of people giving up looking for work.

For September, economists expect the unemployment rate to hit 4.8%, although the forecast is again broad, going from 4.5% unchanged to a peak of 5.4%.

Forward employment indicators, such as job vacancies, suggest that unemployment could peak at just over five percent in the coming months.

Despite this, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe believes the ABS measure of hours worked is the best indicator of current labor market conditions, which fell 66 million hours in August. , or 3.7%.

On Tuesday, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index – an indicator of future household spending – will be released.

Last week, the index hit its highest level since mid-July with a view to lifting lockdowns, but still remains far from its long-term average.

On the same day, the National Australia Bank will release its business survey for September.

In August, business confidence – a guide to future investment and hiring jobs – remained in negative territory, but the rebound in new orders presented some light at the end of the tunnel.

On Wednesday, the October Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence Index will be released.

On Thursday, RBA Vice Governor Guy Debelle will deliver an online address at the CFA Australian Investment Conference on “Climate Risks and the Australian Financial System”.

Meanwhile, Australian stocks appear poised for a soft open on Monday after a lower end on Wall Street on Friday after the latest US wage report fell short of expectations.

US employers added just 194,000 jobs last month, well below the 479,000 economists expected.

The S&P 500 lost 8.42 points or 0.2% to 4,391.34, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 8.69 points, or less than 0.1%, to 34,746.25, while the Nasdaq composite slipped 74.48 points, or 0.5%, to 14,579.54.

Australian equity futures fell four points to 7273.

On Friday, the Australian benchmark S & P / ASX200 closed 63.4 points, or 0.87%, up to 7,320.1.

Associated Australian Press

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