Job postings have risen sharply as lockdowns from COVID-19 eased and suggest the unemployment rate will again be below five percent in the near term after the unexpected spike to 5.2 percent in October.
The ANZ job posting series jumped 7.4% in November to stand 44.2% above its pre-pandemic level.
ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch said this reflects the strong recovery in NSW, Victoria and ACT as restrictions eased.
She expects unemployment to fall to around 4% by the end of 2022 and even more in 2023.
“We believe that the competition for the workforce will become even more intense and that workers will exercise their new power by opting for better jobs and demanding higher wages in 2022,” she said.
She believes that will bring annual wage growth to around 3% in the second half of 2022.
The Reserve Bank of Australia wants inflation to stay within its 2-3% target for the long term before raising the spot rate to its all-time low of 0.1%.
To achieve this, he estimates that unemployment will need to be around 4% or less and that wage growth will exceed 3%, compared to the current 2.2%.
The RBA will hold its last monthly board meeting of the year on Tuesday.
Associated Australian Press